why the Senators early season struggles are concerning

Panic buttons were ready to launch across the nation’s capital late Thursday night when the Senators trailed the Los Angeles Kings 5-1 early in the third period. But a scintillating comeback delayed the launch, with Ottawa salvaging a point in a 6-5 overtime loss.

Despite the reprieve, there are plenty of reasons for Senators fans to keep their fingers hovering over the panic button.

Ottawa has struggled this season, and if it weren’t for Linus Ullmark’s heroics, it likely wouldn’t be 8-5-1. The Senators are 7-1-0 with Ullmark, who is currently sidelined with an injury, and just 1-3-1 with either Sam Ersson or Jonas Johansson in net.

But it’s not just the goaltending.

The Senators have consistently struggled in areas where they excelled last season, when they were statistically one of the NHL’s best defensive teams. At five-on-five, Ottawa finished among the top five in every major analytical category, including expected goals, scoring chance share and high-danger chance share.

This season, the Senators rank in the bottom 10 in all three.

Injuries provide some context. Ullmark, William Eklund, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Warren Foegele and Andre Burakovsky have all missed time. Still, there are reasons for concern.

Players like Dylan Cozens and Burakovsky, who were expected to provide depth in the top six, have struggled, while Eklund’s injury has left Ottawa without the player expected to help fill the void left by Brady Tkachuk.

Instead of coming at opponents in waves like they did last season, the Senators too often rely on Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson, along with Ullmark’s play in goal.

Ottawa ranks 19th in goals-per-game and 15th in goals allowed.

The second period has been particularly troublesome. The Senators have been outscored 20-13 in the second this season, including 11-2 over their past four games. By comparison, they’ve outscored opponents 31-23 in the first and third periods combined.

Ottawa struggled with the long change in the second period during Travis Green’s first season behind the bench, and those issues have continued. Look no further than Thursday, when the Senators allowed four second-period goals and were outshot 16-1 by the Kings.

Clean that up and more consistent results could follow.

There are some encouraging numbers. Ottawa ranks sixth in the NHL in five-on-five goals allowed per 60 minutes and 16th in goals scored per 60.

Much of that defensive success can be attributed to Ullmark’s league-leading .960 save percentage at five-on-five, which has helped Ottawa rank sixth in team save percentage in that situation. With uncertainty surrounding Ullmark’s health, however, it remains to be seen whether that is sustainable over an 84-game season.

Injuries on the blue line have also played a role, but Ottawa had a healthy defence for the first time all season Thursday and was still dominated by Los Angeles for much of the first 45 minutes.

Since Sanderson returned, Ottawa has averaged 3.95 goals per game, sixth-best in the NHL over that span. The underlying numbers, however, remain mixed.

The Senators rank 23rd in expected-goals share and eighth-worst in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five since his return. At the same time, Ottawa has generated the second-most expected goals per game.

Put simply, the Senators are creating plenty of chances but giving up too much defensively.

There has been no shortage of production from their top players. Since Oct. 21, Connor McDavid is the only player with as many points as Batherson, who has 10 in five games. Stützle and Batherson both rank among the NHL’s top 11 in goals.

The lack of secondary scoring has been particularly evident on the power play. Ottawa is converting at just 13 per cent, improving to 15 per cent since Sanderson returned, but the unit remains too static.

Cozens, who scored 13 power-play goals last season, has just one this year, although his overall production has improved recently with six points in his past five games.

Eklund’s eventual return should provide another player capable of driving offence and help fill some of the void left by Tkachuk. Until then, the question is whether Ottawa can generate enough offence consistently.

There is no single explanation for why Ottawa has gone from a top-five analytical team last season to one sitting in the bottom 10 in several categories. Injuries have certainly contributed, but they don't explain everything. It’s also a 14-game sample, and more time is needed to determine whether these early trends will continue.

A healthy blue line should provide a clearer picture of whether Ottawa can rediscover the possession game that was so successful last season.

There is also a case for Steve Staios to add another top-six winger, whether that happens soon or closer to the trade deadline. Ottawa ranks 20th in shooting percentage, and adding another proven scorer would provide some needed depth beyond the team’s top offensive players.

Now, back to the most obvious concern: the instability in goal.

Ullmark has been spectacular, continuing the strong play he showed down the stretch last season. What remains an issue is his availability. He hasn’t played since suffering an injury Oct. 21, and Ottawa has struggled without him.

Ersson has yet to provide the stability Ottawa hoped for when it acquired him.

Through three starts and six appearances, Ersson sits fifth-last at minus-4.6, along with an .845 save percentage.

That led Ottawa to turn to Johansson, acquired for future considerations. He has posted an .861 save percentage and minus-0.8 goals saved above expected.

Goaltending, particularly at the backup position, was one of Ottawa’s biggest issues last season. Given that Ullmark has never played more than 50 games in an NHL season, the Senators are again relying heavily on him while searching for consistency behind him.

The organization would point out that it now has two veteran options behind Ullmark, compared with last season when youngster Leevi Merilainen was thrust into a difficult position.

Fair enough.

But Ersson and Johansson need to be better. The two have combined for minus-69 goals saved above expected over their careers, according to Evolving Hockey.

James Reimer provided Ottawa with reliable backup goaltending when Ullmark was unavailable last season. There’s enough evidence now to suggest that if neither Ersson nor Johansson can provide something similar, Staios may eventually need to look elsewhere.

Time to hit the panic button?

Not yet. The Senators are still in a playoff spot.

But you might want to keep that button handy.