why The Senators are still contenders without tkachuk

Are the Senators Better Without Brady Tkachuk?

Analysis | Alex Adams

When Brady Tkachuk was traded to Florida this summer, few expected the Senators to be off to their best start in nearly two decades.

Now, as the former captain prepares for his much-anticipated return to Ottawa on Wednesday night, the Senators find themselves in an unexpected position. They're winning, playing a more complete game, and showing signs that life after Tkachuk might not be as difficult as many predicted.

Which raises an interesting question: Are the Senators actually better without Brady Tkachuk?

The Senators appear faster and more responsible defensively, while the lingering distraction of the will he/won't he leave drama has faded away.

The vibes on and off the ice are better in Ottawa than they have been in years.

The Senators are in their glow-up era, after a breakup with their captain. We all know their goal Wednesday night is to show their ex made the wrong move by breaking up with them.

However, Tkachuk is still one of the best power forwards in the world and had a philanthropic impact on this community, which is why he was beloved in Ottawa for so many years.

A slow start to this season plagued Tkachuk until he recorded hat tricks in back-to-back games, effectively shutting down the "Brady isn't the same Brady" discourse that was becoming rampant. For Brady, there was no better time to heat up than before he enters the cauldron of boo birds in Ottawa on Wednesday night.

Tkachuk's pointless playoff performance last season followed a subpar regular season. Even though he remained a point-per-game player, the intangibles and production simply weren't propelling the Senators upwards like they used to. Whether it was unfair or not, when the games mattered, fans expected a resemblance to the player Tkachuk was during the Four Nations Face-Off.

The dominance shown by Tkachuk in the 2024-25 playoffs, where he had seven points in six games against Toronto in the first round, wasn't evident anymore. Perhaps a fresh start in Florida will help him rediscover that level of playoff performance.

In retrospect, the uncertainty surrounding Tkachuk's future became increasingly difficult for both the player and the organization.

Not to mention, Tkachuk's future became a distraction for the team. According to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports, "the (Senators) dressing room was not pushing for Brady to stay."

So far this season, it's quiet in a good way. The distraction and the potential for distraction are removed. No one has to answer questions about things that were mentioned on a podcast. The best teams all row in the same direction, and ultimately this Senators team wants to contend for a Stanley Cup. If a player, let alone your leader and captain, has their commitment questioned, well, it's hard to achieve what you want as a group.

The Senators needed a fully invested Tkachuk to contend, and the uncertainty surrounding his long-term future made that increasingly difficult.

However, even at his best, he might not have led the Senators to contention status.

Tkachuk's analytics have historically been elite, but ultimately only once had he been a point-per-game player, while his defensive limitations remained a concern. The Senators struggled defensively for a long time, and some of that was on Tkachuk.

What's made this Senators team a successful playoff-calibre unit with Tkachuk and now without has been their 200-foot game, an area where Tkachuk has historically struggled.

In addition, the Senators' pathway to improve with Tkachuk was uncertain due to the throwing away of first-round picks and assets during the Pierre Dorion reign as general manager, which wasn't Tkachuk's fault at all. Nevertheless, had Tkachuk stayed in Ottawa, the Senators would not have had many prospects and picks to trade to upgrade the roster, with Tkachuk's impending huge next contract lying in wait.

Ultimately, Steve Staios got a haul for Tkachuk - effectively turning the asset into William Eklund, two first-round picks, a second-round pick and two prospects in Kasper Halttunen and Brandon Svoboda.

The main prize after the dust settled from the Tkachuk trade was Eklund. Eklund is the antithesis of Tkachuk as a hockey player. The Swede is diminutive, elusive, an incredible skater who is responsible defensively. Stylistically, they could not be more different, but like Tkachuk, he carries play.

It was always going to be hard for Eklund to replace Tkachuk.

Historically, Tkachuk always tilted the ice. In three consecutive seasons from 2023 to 2026, Tkachuk led the Senators in expected goal share (min. 600 minutes). Tkachuk's impact down low and as a net-front presence were big reasons why the Senators were top five in the league last season in expected goals at five-on-five, and why they had a top-10 power play.

So, it was believed that his departure from this Senators group would diminish the Senators' capability to tilt play consistently, which would have made Tkachuk irreplaceable.

But so far, that concern hasn't materialized. Before Eklund's injury, he led the team and league in expected goals per 60 (all situations, min. 30 min.) per Evolving Hockey.

That success is across an obviously small sample size, but Eklund (23) is also four years younger than Tkachuk (27). Eklund is under team control until 2030, and he possesses a manageable cap hit of $5.6 million for the next three seasons.

Eklund fits Ottawa's system perfectly, bringing speed and defensive responsibility to the lineup. The hope is that when Eklund returns from his ankle injury, he can come close to replicating Tkachuk's output. Although we must acknowledge Eklund's career high is 58 points, and he's never scored over 20 goals. Tkachuk scored 20-plus goals and 60-plus points on three occasions and would have last season had he not been hurt.

Nevertheless, Steve Staios has added ammunition through the Tkachuk trade and much more cap space to improve the roster, which he never would have had if Tkachuk had stayed.

The ability to bolster the roster comes at a perfect time. With the growth of Tim Stutzle elevating to a legit top-10 point producer this season, which, using the eye test, feels sustainable. Meanwhile, Jake Sanderson has proven himself to be a top-five defenceman in the league on any given night. Add into the mix the likes of Thomas Chabot, Eklund, Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto, Dylan Cozens and Carter Yakemchuk, and it makes for an exciting young core insulated by elite two-way veterans in Claude Giroux and Michael Amadio. The Senators on paper are arguably the deepest roster we've seen in the nation's capital in close to a decade.

That said, even when Tkachuk was on the roster, the focus on transitioning this team to one of the league's elite was predicated on the belief that the organization needed another top-six forward or another top-four defenceman. Those needs still exist, but they feel closer to attaining than they have been in a long time. Prospects such as Carter Yakemchuk and Jaxon Cover have real value in the league, along with the draft picks the organization has accrued because of the Tkachuk trade.

As Tkachuk returns to the place he decided to leave, the Senators' pathway to contention looks clearer than ever.