Chabot's return fuels debate over who should sit.

For the first time this season, the Ottawa Senators could have their full complement of defencemen available when they face the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday night.

The Senators placed Cameron Crotty on waivers Wednesday for the purpose of returning him to their AHL affiliate in Belleville, a move that suggests captain Thomas Chabot is ready to return to the lineup.

Despite Ottawa's 8-5-0 start, injuries have taken a significant toll on the blue line. Remarkably, Chabot and Jake Sanderson have been healthy enough to play in the same game for just four and a half minutes this season.

The team’s success has largely been predicated on the play of Linus Ullmark and Tim Stützle. The Senators’ highly skilled pivot has tallied eight goals and 16 points through 13 games. Not to be outdone, Ullmark has the league’s fifth-highest goals saved above expected mark (GSAx) through his eight starts per Evolving-Hockey.

After being one of the best defensive teams in the NHL by shot and goal metrics last season, the Senators’ underlying metrics have cratered this season. Under normal circumstances, that would understandably elicit a ton of concern. In this instance, however, no one who recognizes the fact that the Senators have had to use 10 defencemen already this season or the fact that Sanderson, Chabot, Artem Zub and Nik Matinpalo have all had to miss several games this season can believe that it is just a coincidence that the Senators’ metrics have suffered.

What matters is that since Jake Sanderson’s return, the Senators’ numbers have improved. For all the talk about the team’s offensive struggles, the Senators scored 14 goals across their three games last week. And in the San Jose game in which the Senators scored two goals, Natural Stat Trick’s game logs indicated that they recorded a season-high 23 high-danger scoring chances.

Even against Las Vegas, in a tightly contested battle with little time or space, the Senators still generated their share of chances. The Golden Knights had a strong push in the second period, but the Senators played well enough to deserve a point, and with better luck, they would have had one. Their defensive performance and commitment to a 200’ game were reminiscent of last season. If that Vegas game is an indication of what is to come, the Senators will be fine. (And as an aside, there’s no doubt that a diligent front office that exhausts all avenues is always looking to improve their club. In saying that, however, wouldn’t it make more sense to evaluate what you have once the blue line is healthy to properly gauge the effectiveness of the offensive talent up front? Offence flows from the defence out.)

Chabot's return does create an interesting wrinkle, however.

Who comes out of the lineup? Nik Matinpalo or Carter Yakemchuk?

The Senators’ third pairing has been comprised of the two right-shots, with Matinpalo playing his off-side.

Matinpalo playing off-side could suggest he is more likely to be the odd-man out, but it is more likely the coaching staff has more confidence in the more experienced defenceman.

Through 13 games, Yakemchuk has scored one goal and added two assists. His usage has been insulated. Of all the defencemen in the NHL who have logged 70-plus five-on-five minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick, only Carolina’s Shayne Gostisbehere (79.25%) has had a higher offensive zone start rate than Yakemchuk (71.77%).

There are obviously two ways to view this. One is that the Senators want to limit the likelihood that Yakemchuk will be exposed in the defensive zone. Like any young and emerging defensive prospect, he is going to experience ups and downs in his first NHL season. His defensive game still has room to grow, but it’s his obvious shortcoming right now.

Despite the high percentage of offensive zone starts, when Yakemchuk has been on the ice this season, the Senators have generated 43.29 percent of the shots (CF%), 41.56 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 40.00 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 36.79 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).

In terms of the rate of shots, goals and expected goals allowed per 60, Yakemchuk’s metrics are highest on the team.

Outside of Jake Sanderson, he’s also arguably the most dynamic defenceman on the Senators inside the offensive zone.

Despite that offensive aptitude, Yakemchuk’s isolated impacts have not been particularly strong according to HockeyViz.com’s modelling.

Conversely, Nik Matinpalo is a better defender and a known commodity at the NHL level, who has a wealth of experience playing alongside Tyler Kleven.

Here is how the Senators have fared this season with Kleven on the ice at five-on-five.

• Kleven-Matinpalo: 24.8 mins, 51.35 CF%, 76.08 SF%, 67.10 GF%, and 53.46 xGF%
• Kleven-Yakemchuk: 74.0 mins, 38.30 CF% 32.26 SF%, 41.94 GF%, and 32.73 xGF%

These are obviously very small sample sizes, so it is still too early to make snap judgments based on the numbers alone, and for what it’s worth, the Kleven-Matinpalo pairing did not have particularly strong metrics either.

I am surprised, however, that Yakemchuk’s offensive impact hasn't been stronger. There have been snapshots of that talent, but overall, there is room for improvement in every facet of his game. That development will come in time, but in the interim, it would not be a surprise to see the coaching staff prefer to give Mantipalo the first opportunity as the third pairing’s right-shot defenceman.